What will be the 51st state in Trump's term Odds · During Trump's term
Kalshi traders give Cuba a 4% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuba | 4% | +2757 | — |
| Puerto Rico | 2% | +4778 | — |
| Venezuela | 2% | +5305 | — |
| Greenland | 2% | +6352 | — |
| Canada | 1% | +6797 | — |
| District of Columbia | 1% | +8596 | — |
| Guam | 1% | +8596 | — |
| Colombia | <1% | +28471 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the 51st state is District of Columbia before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Cuba at 4%, about +2757 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 20, 2029 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.