What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | 9% | +1011 | ▼ 0 |
| Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | 8% | +1233 | ▼ 4 |
| ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | 11% | +852 | — |
| Iran Reconstruction Funding | 9% | +1076 | — |
| Dilution of Iran's Uranium | 10% | +900 | ▲ 1 |
| Enriched Uranium Surrender | 9% | +1076 | — |
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How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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