Victoria Parliamentary Election Winner Odds
Polymarket traders give Liberal–National a 93% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal–National | 93% | -1329 | ▲ 1 |
| Labor | 5% | +1900 | ▲ 1 |
| One Nation | 2% | +4445 | — |
| Greens | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Victoria Parliamentary Election Winner?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Liberal–National at 93%, about -1329 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 29, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Victoria Parliamentary Election Winner?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.