U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 5–15% a 90% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5–15% | 90% | -852 | — |
| 15–25% | 8% | +1233 | — |
| <5% | 2% | +5782 | — |
| 25–35% | 2% | +6352 | — |
| 35%+ | 1% | +7307 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 5–15% at 90%, about -852 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 31, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.