Tusk out by December 31 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 96% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | +2678 | ▼ 1 |
| No | 96% | -2678 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Tusk ceases to be Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Tusk's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Tusk and the government of Poland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Tusk out by December 31"?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 96%, about -2678 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Tusk out by December 31?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.