Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a >99% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | <1% | +49900 | — |
| No | >99% | -49900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities in Yemen or against the Houthis between the date of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The market will resolve based on the date of the report, not the date of publication. This market will remain open for 14 days after the specified date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published. If no such report is published by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at >99%, about -49900 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 1, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.