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Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___ Odds

Polymarket traders give No a 98% chance.

Polymarket Volume $120K 24h $0 Liquidity $1.4K Ends Jan 1, 2027 Updated Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST
OutcomeChanceOdds24h
Yes
2% +5305 —
No
98% -5305 —

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Price history

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Oct 16 Nov 5
December 31, 2026

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market. If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market. If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.

FAQ

What are the odds of "Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___"?

As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 98%, about -5305 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.

How are prediction market odds calculated?

Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.

When does this market close?

Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.

Where can I trade on Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?

This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.