Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16 Odds
This market has resolved: 36.8+. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36.8+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 2 |
| 37.0+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 1 |
| 37.2+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 1 |
| 37.4+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 8 |
| 37.6+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 9 |
| 37.8+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 10 |
| 38.0+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 12 |
| 38.2+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 31 |
| 38.4+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 33 |
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on October 16, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Oct 17, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.