Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1) Odds · 10/26 - 11/1
This market has resolved. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 150 | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Above 160 | 99% | -9900 | ▲ 1 |
| Above 170 | 99% | -9900 | ▲ 1 |
| Above 180 | 95% | -1900 | ▲ 9 |
| Above 185 | 88% | -733 | — |
| Above 190 | 55% | -122 | ▼ 17 |
| Above 195 | 62% | -163 | ▲ 9 |
| Above 200 | 44% | +127 | ▲ 4 |
| Above 205 | 61% | -156 | ▲ 38 |
| Above 210 | 11% | +809 | ▼ 4 |
| Above 220 | 1% | +9900 | ▼ 2 |
Price history
Resolution rules
If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 150 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Nov 3, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.