Texas: Abbott's margin vs. Paxton's margin Odds · On Nov 3, 2026
Kalshi traders give Abbott by 3-6 a 96% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abbott by 3-6 | 96% | -2400 | — |
| Abbott by 0-3 | 8% | +1150 | — |
| Abbott by 12+ | 7% | +1329 | — |
| Abbott by 6-9 | 3% | +3233 | — |
| Abbott by 9-12 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Paxton by 0-3 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Paxton by 3+ | 1% | +9900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Greg Abbott's margin in the Texas governor election minus Ken Paxton's margin in the Texas U.S. Senate election is at least 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Texas: Abbott's margin vs. Paxton's margin?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Abbott by 3-6 at 96%, about -2400 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 30, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Texas: Abbott's margin vs. Paxton's margin?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.