Taiwan Local Elections winner Odds · in 2026
Kalshi traders give Kuomintang a 71% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuomintang | 71% | -245 | ▼ 3 |
| Democratic Progressive Party | 30% | +233 | — |
| Taiwan People’s Party | 2% | +6567 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the Kuomintang wins the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Taiwan Local Elections winner?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Kuomintang at 71%, about -245 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Nov 28, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Taiwan Local Elections winner?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.