Swiss Federal Council By-Election Winner Odds
Polymarket traders give Céline Amaudruz a 26% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Céline Amaudruz | 26% | +285 | ▲ 3 |
| Thomas Aeschi | 25% | +300 | ▲ 3 |
| Marco Chiesa | 25% | +300 | — |
| Jean-Pierre Gallati | 24% | +317 | ▼ 2 |
| Pierre Alain Schnegg | 24% | +317 | ▲ 5 |
| Franz Ruppen | 19% | +426 | ▲ 2 |
| Rémy Wyssmann | 14% | +630 | ▼ 6 |
| Michael Graber | 7% | +1329 | ▼ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Switzerland's Federal Assembly is currently scheduled to elect a successor to Federal Councillor Guy Parmelin on December 9, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual elected by the Federal Assembly to succeed Guy Parmelin as a member of the Swiss Federal Council by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An individual will be considered elected once the Federal Assembly officially declares them elected. Whether the elected individual accepts the election, is sworn in, or assumes office will not affect the resolution of this market. If no such individual is elected by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Switzerland and the Swiss Federal Assembly; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Swiss Federal Council By-Election Winner?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Céline Amaudruz at 26%, about +285 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 10, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Swiss Federal Council By-Election Winner?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.