Serbia Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory Odds
This market has resolved: Student List 10%+. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Student List 10%+ ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 1 |
| United Serbia 10%+ | 0% | — | ▼ 15 |
| United Serbia 5-10% | 0% | — | ▼ 24 |
| United Serbia 2-5% | 0% | — | ▼ 30 |
| United Serbia <2% | 0% | — | ▼ 11 |
| Student List <2% | 0% | — | — |
| Student List 2-5% | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| Student List 5-10% | 0% | — | — |
| Another list wins | 0% | — | — |
Price history
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two electoral lists in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place electoral lists. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two lists receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia attributes them to the named electoral list. Vote percentages attributed to other lists or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a list other than Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia or Student List – Students Win receives the most valid votes, this market will resolve to “Another list wins”. If two or more lists tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another list wins”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Oct 25, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Serbia Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.