Senate MOV Ranking: Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska Odds
Polymarket traders give KS < OH < AK < TX a 49% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| KS < OH < AK < TX | 49% | +106 | ▲ 3 |
| AK < OH < KS < TX | 40% | +152 | ▲ 2 |
| KS < AK < OH < TX | 39% | +158 | ▼ 5 |
| OH < KS < AK < TX | 35% | +185 | ▼ 9 |
| AK < OH < TX < KS | 35% | +188 | ▼ 9 |
| AK < KS < OH < TX | 19% | +441 | ▼ 24 |
| OH < AK < KS < TX | 6% | +1654 | ▼ 1 |
| TX < KS < AK < OH | 5% | +1962 | ▼ 38 |
| TX < AK < KS < OH | 5% | +1983 | ▼ 38 |
| KS < OH < TX < AK | 5% | +1983 | ▼ 39 |
| TX < AK < OH < KS | 5% | +2005 | — |
| OH < TX < KS < AK | 5% | +2005 | ▼ 39 |
| KS < TX < OH < AK | 5% | +2005 | ▼ 39 |
| AK < TX < OH < KS | 5% | +2005 | ▼ 39 |
| KS < TX < AK < OH | 4% | +2253 | ▼ 39 |
| KS < AK < TX < OH | 4% | +2253 | ▼ 39 |
| OH < TX < AK < KS | 4% | +2532 | ▼ 40 |
| TX < OH < AK < KS | 4% | +2567 | ▼ 40 |
| OH < AK < TX < KS | 4% | +2567 | ▼ 40 |
| TX < KS < OH < AK | 3% | +3536 | ▼ 41 |
| OH < KS < TX < AK | 1% | +7592 | ▼ 42 |
| TX < OH < KS < AK | 1% | +7900 | — |
| AK < TX < KS < OH | <1% | +22122 | — |
| AK < KS < TX < OH | <1% | +24900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the order of the margins of victory in the 2026 United States Senate elections in Texas, Ohio (special election), Kansas, and Alaska, ranked from lowest (closest) to highest. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the relevant round of the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two or more of these states have identical margins of victory, the tie will be broken alphabetically by state name, with the state that comes first alphabetically treated as having the smaller margin of victory. This market will resolve based on the official vote counts once the counts have been made official. If a recount is initiated before any applicable vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Senate MOV Ranking: Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price KS < OH < AK < TX at 49%, about +106 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 3, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Senate MOV Ranking: Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.