Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by... Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 16% | +545 | ▲ 2 |
| March 31, 2027 | 37% | +174 | ▲ 1 |
| June 30, 2027 | 54% | -115 | ▲ 2 |
| April 30, 2027 | 42% | +141 | — |
| May 31, 2027 | 51% | -104 | ▲ 1 |
| July 31, 2027 | 60% | -150 | ▲ 1 |
| September 30, 2027 | 66% | -190 | ▲ 2 |
| August 31, 2027 | 64% | -178 | ▲ 1 |
| October 31, 2027 | 67% | -199 | ▲ 3 |
| December 31, 2027 | 70% | -228 | ▼ 0 |
| November 30, 2027 | 68% | -213 | — |
| January 31, 2027 | 27% | +277 | ▲ 3 |
| February 28, 2027 | 30% | +239 | — |
| November 30 | 5% | +2122 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jul 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.