Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by... Odds
This market has resolved: December 31. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | 0% | — | ▼ 2 |
| September 30 | 0% | — | ▼ 3 |
| December 31 ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 7 |
| September 15 | 0% | — | ▼ 3 |
| October 31 ✓ | 100% | — | — |
| October 15 | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| November 30 ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 11 |
| November 15 ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 18 |
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Oct 31, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.