Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026 Odds · Before Jan 3, 2027
Kalshi traders give Mississippi a 98% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | 98% | -4900 | ▼ 1 |
| North Carolina | 3% | +3900 | ▲ 1 |
| South Carolina | 2% | +6567 | — |
| Louisiana | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Montana | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Kansas | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Texas | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Iowa | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Alaska | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Florida | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Ohio | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Georgia | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Michigan | <1% | +19900 | — |
| New Hampshire | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Minnesota | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Virginia | <1% | +19900 | — |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
If Mississippi is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Mississippi at 98%, about -4900 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Apr 3, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.