Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) Odds · 10/12 - 10/18
This market has resolved: Above 3. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3 ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Above 4 ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Above 5 ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Above 6 ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Above 8 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 10 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 12 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 14 | 2% | +4900 | — |
Price history
Resolution rules
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 3 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Oct 20, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18)?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.