Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay Odds · In 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clarissa | 18% | +471 | — |
| Dune: Part Three | 43% | +133 | — |
| Saturn Return | 3% | +3900 | — |
| The Social Reckoning | 7% | +1329 | — |
| Wildwood | 9% | +1011 | — |
| Project Hail Mary | 86% | -590 | ▲ 1 |
| The Odyssey | 91% | -1011 | — |
| Toy Story 5 | 10% | +900 | — |
| All of a Sudden | 56% | -127 | — |
| The Black Ball | 89% | -770 | — |
| The Whisper Man | 7% | +1438 | — |
| The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth | 30% | +233 | — |
| Cry to Heaven | 9% | +1011 | ▼ 9 |
| The Invite | 87% | -641 | ▼ 1 |
| Ink | 22% | +355 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Clarissa has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 31, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.