NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027) Odds · 2025-2027
Kalshi traders give Increase 0.01-0.99% a 41% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Increase 0.01-0.99% | 41% | +147 | — |
| No change or decrease 0–0.99% | 36% | +178 | — |
| Decrease 1-1.99% | 8% | +1150 | — |
| Increase 1-1.99% | 5% | +2122 | — |
| Increase 3% or more | 4% | +2400 | — |
| Decrease 3% or more | 3% | +3900 | — |
| Decrease 2-2.99% | 2% | +6567 | — |
| Increase 2-2.99% | 2% | +6567 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the population change in New York City is -3% or less between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Increase 0.01-0.99% at 41%, about +147 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jun 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.