No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by... Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 98% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | +4344 | — |
| No | 98% | -4344 | — |
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez or the sitting Government of Spain is voted upon in the Congress of Deputies of Spain by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “motion of no-confidence” refers to a formal motion of censure under Spain’s constitutional procedures, including a candidate to replace Sanchez as Prime Minister. Informal calls for Sánchez to resign, requests for a confidence vote, parliamentary criticism, or other non-binding political statements will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by..."?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 98%, about -4344 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.