Next Prime Minister of Italy Odds
Polymarket traders give Giorgia Meloni a 50% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgia Meloni | 50% | +102 | ▲ 1 |
| Giuseppe Conte | 23% | +344 | ▼ 3 |
| Elly Schlein | 18% | +471 | — |
| Silvia Salis | 4% | +2717 | — |
| Roberto Vannacci | 3% | +3075 | ▼ 1 |
| Matteo Salvini | <1% | +14186 | — |
| Matteo Renzi | <1% | +18082 | — |
| Mario Draghi | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Angelo Bonelli | <1% | +24900 | — |
| Carlo Calenda | <1% | +28471 | — |
| Guido Crosetto | <1% | +49900 | — |
| Antonio Tajani | <1% | +66567 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next Prime Minister of Italy?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Giorgia Meloni at 50%, about +102 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2029 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next Prime Minister of Italy?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.