Next Mayor of Cape Town Odds
Polymarket traders give Geordin Hill-Lewis a 98% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geordin Hill-Lewis | 98% | -3900 | — |
| Cheslyn Steenberg | <1% | +24900 | — |
| Khalid Sayed | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Zelda Tarntaal | <1% | +49900 | — |
| Nontando Nolutshungu | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Ernest Theron | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Ndithini Tyhido | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Mareldia Chowglay | <1% | +99900 | — |
| Dereleen James | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Brett Herron | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Ellen Pakkies | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Roger Solomons | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Jeremiah Thuynsma | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Fiona Abrahams | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Lwazi Pakade | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Luvuyo Zondani | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Municipal elections are currently scheduled to be held in South Africa on November 4, 2026. Cape Town’s mayor will be elected by the newly constituted council at its inaugural meeting, which is expected to be held within 14 days of the municipal election, by November 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who officially assumes the role of Mayor of Cape Town following the 2026 South African municipal elections. A qualifying individual must be elected mayor by the Cape Town City Council. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of South Africa, including the Electoral Commission of South Africa (https://elections.org.za); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next Mayor of Cape Town?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Geordin Hill-Lewis at 98%, about -3900 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 5, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next Mayor of Cape Town?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.