Next Israeli Minister of National Security Odds
Polymarket traders give No Next Minister by Feb 28 a 29% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Next Minister by Feb 28 | 29% | +245 | ▼ 2 |
| Yoram Cohen | 18% | +471 | ▲ 3 |
| Yair Golan | 17% | +480 | ▲ 14 |
| Yoav Segalovich | 14% | +590 | ▲ 11 |
| Talya Lankri | 6% | +1595 | — |
| Avi Dichter | 5% | +2005 | — |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 4% | +2464 | ▼ 1 |
| Amir Ohana | 3% | +2977 | — |
| Ofer Winter | 3% | +3290 | — |
| Matan Kahana | 3% | +3471 | ▼ 1 |
| Gideon Sa’ar | 3% | +3536 | ▼ 1 |
| Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper) | 2% | +4344 | — |
| Eli Cohen | 2% | +5614 | — |
| Elazar Stern | 1% | +8596 | — |
| Yossi Cohen | 1% | +9424 | — |
| Yoaz Hendel | <1% | +33233 | — |
| Bezalel Smotrich | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Ram Ben-Barak | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Meirav Ben-Ari | <1% | +49900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next Israeli Minister of National Security?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No Next Minister by Feb 28 at 29%, about +245 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Mar 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next Israeli Minister of National Security?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.