Next Israeli government a minority government Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 58% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42% | +138 | ▲ 4 |
| No | 58% | -138 | ▼ 4 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election is a minority government. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A minority government is defined as a government whose parties together hold fewer than 61 of the 120 seats in the Knesset at the time the government is approved in a vote of confidence. Seats will be attributed to parties according to the Knesset factions in place at the time of that vote. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed at the moment the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. Only the seats attributed to the government's parties at that moment will be considered; seats gained or lost afterward will not affect the resolution of this market. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, abstentions, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not count toward the government's seat total. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Next Israeli government a minority government"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 58%, about -138 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next Israeli government a minority government?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.