Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 90% | -852 | — |
| Jordan Bardella | 8% | +1150 | ▲ 1 |
| Éric Zemmour | 3% | +3409 | — |
| Édouard Philippe | 19% | +441 | — |
| David Lisnard | 18% | +460 | — |
| Xavier Bertrand | 4% | +2532 | — |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 4% | +2464 | — |
| François Ruffin | 3% | +2885 | — |
| Gabriel Attal | 6% | +1670 | — |
| Bruno Retailleau | 5% | +1880 | — |
| François Hollande | 4% | +2281 | — |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 7% | +1438 | — |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 49% | +104 | ▲ 1 |
| Marine Tondelier | 3% | +3025 | — |
| Fabien Roussel | 3% | +2930 | — |
| Olivier Faure | 3% | +3536 | — |
| Dominique de Villepin | 1% | +6797 | ▼ 1 |
| Ségolène Royal | 3% | +3348 | — |
| François Asselineau | 2% | +4067 | — |
| Clémentine Autain | 3% | +3179 | — |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3% | +3075 | — |
| Michel Barnier | 2% | +4067 | — |
| Valérie Pécresse | 2% | +5782 | — |
| François Bayrou | 3% | +3409 | — |
| Élisabeth Borne | 3% | +3746 | — |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 3% | +3822 | — |
| Jean Castex | 2% | +4551 | — |
| Gérald Darmanin | 3% | +3025 | — |
| Carole Delga | 2% | +6352 | — |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 4% | +2757 | — |
| Manuel Bompard | 4% | +2339 | — |
| Mathilde Panot | 2% | +5028 | — |
| Sarah Knafo | 4% | +2757 | ▼ 1 |
| Juan Branco | 4% | +2532 | — |
| Clémence Guetté | 4% | +2253 | — |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 3% | +2885 | ▼ 1 |
| Christine Lagarde | 15% | +567 | ▲ 1 |
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Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Apr 19, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
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