Next French presidential election: 1st place (1st round) Odds · On Apr 18, 2027
Kalshi traders give Marine Le Pen a 83% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 83% | -488 | — |
| Jordan Bardella | 7% | +1438 | — |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 5% | +2122 | — |
| David Lisnard | 2% | +4900 | — |
| Édouard Philippe | 2% | +6567 | — |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Gabriel Attal | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Bruno Retailleau | <1% | +19900 | — |
| François Hollande | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Éric Zemmour | <1% | +19900 | — |
| François Ruffin | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Marine Tondelier | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Dominique de Villepin | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Xavier Bertrand | <1% | +19900 | — |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
If Marine Le Pen finishes in 1st place in the first round of the next French presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next French presidential election: 1st place (1st round)?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Marine Le Pen at 83%, about -488 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists May 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next French presidential election: 1st place (1st round)?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.