Next ECB President Odds
Polymarket traders give Pablo Hernández de Cos a 58% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Hernández de Cos | 58% | -138 | ▲ 4 |
| Klaas Knot | 37% | +174 | ▼ 4 |
| Nadia Calviño | 7% | +1318 | ▲ 2 |
| François Villeroy de Galhau | 5% | +1735 | — |
| Fabio Panetta | 5% | +1920 | ▼ 1 |
| Olli Rehn | 4% | +2717 | — |
| Joachim Nagel | 1% | +8991 | ▼ 4 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Christine Lagarde has announced that she will step down as President of the European Central Bank on February 7, 2027 (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr261029~abbb6dc64b.en.html). This market will resolve to the first individual who is formally appointed as President of the European Central Bank to succeed Christine Lagarde. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as President of the European Central Bank by the European Council. A recommendation by the Council of the European Union alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or acting President of the European Central Bank will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market will immediately resolve to the formally appointed individual regardless of whether that individual subsequently takes office or whether another individual holds the office after the appointment. If no such President is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Council and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next ECB President?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Pablo Hernández de Cos at 58%, about -138 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Feb 8, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next ECB President?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.