Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028 Odds
Polymarket traders give No Next Chancellor before 2028 a 67% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Next Chancellor before 2028 | 67% | -199 | — |
| Hendrik Wüst | 14% | +641 | — |
| Markus Söder | 11% | +848 | — |
| Carsten Linnemann | 4% | +2147 | ▲ 1 |
| Alice Weidel | 4% | +2432 | — |
| Boris Pistorius | 4% | +2603 | — |
| Lars Klingbeil | <1% | +11011 | — |
| Felix Banaszak | <1% | +16567 | — |
| Jens Spahn | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Tino Chrupalla | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Katharina Dröge | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Heidi Reichinnek | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Sahra Wagenknecht | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No Next Chancellor before 2028 at 67%, about -199 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.