Next Brazilian Minister of Finance Odds
Polymarket traders give Dario Durigan a 34% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dario Durigan | 34% | +199 | ▼ 4 |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 24% | +326 | ▼ 4 |
| Rafael Fonteles | 22% | +365 | ▲ 8 |
| Gabriel Galípolo | 14% | +633 | ▲ 5 |
| Fernando Haddad | 8% | +1150 | ▼ 8 |
| Aloizio Mercadante | 6% | +1475 | — |
| Rogério Ceron | 5% | +1787 | — |
| Gleisi Hoffmann | 4% | +2757 | — |
| Paulo Guedes | 3% | +3822 | — |
| Simone Tebet | 1% | +8233 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Minister of Finance (Ministro da Fazenda) in the government of the President of Brazil whose term begins on January 5, 2027. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed to that government by the President of Brazil. An individual serving as Minister of Finance at the end of the previous term who is reappointed or retained in that position at the start of the new term will count as assuming office in that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Finance will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Finance” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Finance are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Finance assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next Brazilian Minister of Finance?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Dario Durigan at 34%, about +199 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Mar 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next Brazilian Minister of Finance?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.