Next Brazilian Chief of Staff Odds
Polymarket traders give Camilo Santana a 63% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Camilo Santana | 63% | -167 | ▼ 4 |
| Gleisi Hoffmann | 20% | +396 | ▼ 1 |
| Fernando Haddad | 13% | +669 | — |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 11% | +852 | ▲ 1 |
| Jaques Wagner | 5% | +1983 | — |
| Rui Costa | 4% | +2147 | — |
| Miriam Belchior | <1% | +24900 | — |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Chief of Staff of the Presidency (Ministro-Chefe da Casa Civil) in the government of the President of Brazil whose term begins on January 5, 2027. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed to that government by the President of Brazil. An individual serving as Chief of Staff at the end of the previous term who is reappointed or retained in that position at the start of the new term will count as assuming office in that government. Any interim or caretaker Chief of Staff will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Chief of Staff” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Chief of Staff are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Chief of Staff assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next Brazilian Chief of Staff?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Camilo Santana at 63%, about -167 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Mar 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next Brazilian Chief of Staff?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.