Newsom flips Vance for 2028 president by March 31 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 65% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 36% | +182 | ▼ 3 |
| No | 65% | -182 | ▲ 3 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom's hourly odds value is higher than JD Vance's hourly odds value in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Gavin Newsom being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Gavin Newsom or JD Vance in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing before April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Gavin Newsom and JD Vance between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Gavin Newsom and JD Vance in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/president-2028-candidate.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Newsom flips Vance for 2028 president by March 31"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 65%, about -182 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Apr 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Newsom flips Vance for 2028 president by March 31?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.