New Zealand Election: Any Bloc Wins a Majority Odds
Polymarket traders give “Yes” a 70% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | -233 | ▲ 27 |
| No | 30% | +233 | ▼ 26 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following groups of parties wins a combined total of more than half of the seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election: (a) Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori; or (b) National, ACT, and New Zealand First. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the New Zealand House of Representatives. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "New Zealand Election: Any Bloc Wins a Majority"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Yes at 70%, about -233 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 8, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on New Zealand Election: Any Bloc Wins a Majority?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.