New Supreme Court justice confirmed Odds · Before Jan 21, 2029
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Before 2027 | 8% | +1216 | — |
| Before June 2027 | 12% | +733 | — |
| Before 2028 | 22% | +365 | — |
| Before Jan 21, 2029 | 35% | +190 | — |
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Resolution rules
If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between Issuance and September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on New Supreme Court justice confirmed?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.