NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by... Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 96% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | +2432 | — |
| No | 96% | -2432 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia. For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by..."?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 96%, about -2432 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.