Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by... Odds
This market has resolved: October 21. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 21 ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 26 |
| October 24 ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 15 |
| October 31 ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 1 |
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any full calendar day between the day of market creation and the specified date, inclusive (Marseille time), passes without any ban on public gatherings in effect in any part of the City of Marseille, France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A calendar day passes without any ban on public gatherings in effect if, at no point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM Marseille time on that day, a ban on public gatherings is in effect in any part of the City of Marseille. The City of Marseille refers to the municipality (commune) of Marseille, within its official municipal boundaries. A ban on public gatherings refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits gatherings or demonstrations in public spaces in the City of Marseille, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A ban of any scope will count, whether citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of the City of Marseille, and must be officially declared by the City of Marseille, the Bouches-du-Rhône Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police des Bouches-du-Rhône), or a French national authority. A broader ban (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will count so long as it applies to at least part of the City of Marseille. Orders that prohibit or restrict only one or more specific, identified demonstrations, marches, or events (rather than gatherings or demonstrations generally) will not be considered bans on public gatherings for the purposes of this market, including where such an order applies across a defined area or the entire city. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, and conditional or prospective statements that a ban may be imposed will not be considered bans on public gatherings for the purposes of this market. Closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not be considered bans on public gatherings unless they also impose a ban as defined above. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Oct 31, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.