Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out Odds

Polymarket traders give “Yes” a 59% chance.

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the ceasefire between Israel and Iran ends before Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither the end of the ceasefire nor Benjamin Netanyahu ceasing to be Prime Minister of Israel occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran will be considered to have ended if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country after market creation. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for whether the ceasefire has ended will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting. Benjamin Netanyahu will be considered to have ceased to be Prime Minister of Israel if he ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time after market creation. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu’s resignation/removal will count as him ceasing to be Prime Minister as of the time of the announcement, regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Once the ceasefire ends before Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether hostilities subsequently cease or a new ceasefire is agreed. If Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel before the ceasefire en

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