Israel tourism plunges below 40K by January Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 82% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | +456 | ▲ 1 |
| No | 82% | -456 | ▼ 0 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of tourist arrivals to Israel is below 40,000 for any of the following months: November 2026, December 2026, or January 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Each month will be considered on its own; figures will not be summed or averaged across months. Subject to the erroneous data provision below, this market will resolve to "Yes" upon publication of a qualifying figure below 40,000 for any of the listed months, including a revised figure, without waiting for later months. Otherwise, this market will resolve upon publication of the January 2027 figure, expected in early February 2027. Tourist arrivals refers to the number of tourist entries to Israel in a given month as published by the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), i.e. entries by visitors (persons entering Israel on a tourist visa or a temporary-resident visa) who leave Israel on a date different from their date of entry, as recorded by Israeli border control. Day visitors, including cruise passengers who enter Israel for day visits and sleep on the ship, are not counted. Israeli emigrants arriving for visits, which the CBS reports separately, are not counted. Months are calendar months as used by the CBS for its monthly visitor arrival statistics. The figure used will be the headline (original, non-seasonally adjusted) number of tourist entries. This headline figure will govern regardless of any change in the definitions, classifications, data sources, or methodology underlying it. In the CBS Hebrew release, this figure is stated in the headline as "אלף כניסות תיירים" (thousand tourist entries). For example, the release for September 2026 (https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/mediarelease/DocLib/2026/309/28_26_309b.pdf) reports "135.5 אלף כניסות תיירים", i.e. 135,500 tourist entries. This figure is distinct from the total number of visitor entries ("כניסות מבקרים"), which also includes day visitors. For each month, the figure published by the source used for resolution, including any revision or correction of that figure, will be considered if it is published no later than the first publication of the January 2027 figure by that source, including revisions published in the same release. Except as provided in the erroneous data provision below, revisions, corrections or rebasing published after that point will not be considered, regardless of the direction in which they move the figure. Figures will be used as published, regardless of the definition or collection methodology applied by the CBS at the time, and no adjustment will be made for seasonality, changes in methodology or comparison with prior years. Where a CBS release is published in Hebrew, the Hebrew original will take precedence over English versions. In the case that a resolution source publishes data, sufficient to settle this market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the resolution source or its data, this market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the resolution source. If the resolution source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CBS monthly release on visitor arrivals to Israel (https://www.cbs.gov.il). If the CBS has not published the figure for a given month within 45 days of that month's end, the figure for that month published on the Israel Ministry of Tourism's tourist entries page on gov.il (https://www.gov.il/he/pages/visitors-and-tourists-2026, or the corresponding page for 2027) will
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Israel tourism plunges below 40K by January"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 82%, about -456 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Feb 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Israel tourism plunges below 40K by January?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.