Israel Election: Yashar and Likud in coalition Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 77% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 23% | +335 | ▲ 9 |
| No | 77% | -335 | ▼ 8 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset took place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Likud and Yashar! are included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election, regardless of whether any other parties are also included in that government. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Yashar! refers to the political party led by Gadi Eisenkot. If Yashar! contests the election as part of a joint list or alliance, Yashar! will be considered included in the government if at least one member of Yashar! serves as a Minister. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Israel Election: Yashar and Likud in coalition"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 77%, about -335 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Israel Election: Yashar and Likud in coalition?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.