Israel Election: Bloc Seat Margin of Victory Odds
This market has resolved: Bibi 5-6 seats. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bibi 5-6 seats ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 1 |
| Bibi 7+ seats | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| Bibi 3-4 seats | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| Bibi 1-2 seats | 0% | — | — |
| Tie | 0% | — | — |
| Opposition 1-2 seats | 0% | — | — |
| Opposition 3-4 seats | 0% | — | — |
| Opposition 5-6 seats | 0% | — | — |
| Opposition 7+ seats | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| Other | 0% | — | — |
Price history
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin, in seats, between the combined number of seats won in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election by the Netanyahu bloc (“Bibi”) and by the opposition bloc (“Opposition”). The Netanyahu bloc consists of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas. The opposition bloc consists of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu. Seats won by any party not named above will not count toward either bloc. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the two blocs’ combined seat totals. This market will resolve to the bracket for the bloc that wins more combined seats that contains this margin. If both blocs win the same combined number of seats, this market will resolve to “Tie”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Oct 28, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Israel Election: Bloc Seat Margin of Victory?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.