Iran leader end of 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give Mojtaba Khamenei a 94% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 94% | -1500 | ▲ 3 |
| Alireza Arafi | 2% | +4662 | — |
| No Head of State | 2% | +4778 | ▼ 2 |
| Reza Pahlavi | 1% | +9424 | — |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Hassan Rouhani | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Maryam Rajavi | <1% | +49900 | — |
| Muhammad Mirbaqiri | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Sadegh Larijani | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Hassan Khomeini | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Abbas Araghchi | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Ahmad Vahidi | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Hassan Shariatmadari | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Massoud Rajavi | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Seyed Hossein Mousavian | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Reza Pirzadeh | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Navid Shomali | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Mustafa Hijri | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Ali Motahari | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Mostafa Pourmohammadi | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Sadegh Mahsouli | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Saeed Jalili | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Mahmoud Ahmadinejad | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Mohammad Khatami | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Mohsen Araki | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Nasir Hosseini | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Ali Asghar Hejazi | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Iran leader end of 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Mojtaba Khamenei at 94%, about -1500 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 31, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Iran leader end of 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.