How much will be spent on political ads in the 2026 cycle Odds · 2025-2026 cycle
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 11 billion dollars | 98% | -4900 | — |
| Above 11.25 billion dollars | 95% | -1900 | — |
| Above 11.5 billion dollars | 95% | -1900 | ▲ 15 |
| Above 11.75 billion dollars | 88% | -700 | ▲ 4 |
| Above 12 billion dollars | 67% | -203 | — |
| Above 12.25 billion dollars | 42% | +138 | — |
| Above 12.5 billion dollars | 20% | +400 | — |
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Resolution rules
If total political ad spending for the 2025-2026 election cycle is above 11 billion dollars in AdImpact's 2025-2026 Cycle in Review, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists May 2, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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