How many votes will Schumer get on the first Senate leader ballot Odds · Senate Democratic leader election
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 24 | 92% | -1076 | — |
| At least 28 | 91% | -1011 | ▲ 92 |
| At least 32 | 86% | -590 | ▼ 5 |
| At least 36 | 85% | -545 | ▲ 38 |
| At least 40 | 39% | +156 | ▲ 12 |
| At least 44 | 27% | +270 | ▲ 27 |
| At least 48 | 16% | +525 | ▲ 21 |
| At least 52 | 8% | +1233 | ▼ 6 |
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Price history
On Polymarket
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Resolution rules
If the number of votes cast for Chuck Schumer on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 24 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Apr 3, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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