How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1 Odds
This market has resolved: 8-11. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-11 ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 39 |
| <4 | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| 4-7 | 0% | — | ▼ 18 |
| 12-15 | 0% | — | ▼ 14 |
| 16+ | 0% | — | ▼ 2 |
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page. All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before October 26, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once. Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO. Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources. This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after November 1, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period. The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. If that page is unavailable, notices published through UKMTO's official channels may be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 2, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.