How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026 Odds · November 3, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 10 | 99% | -9900 | — |
| At least 13 | 96% | -2400 | — |
| At least 16 | 97% | -3233 | — |
| At least 19 | 94% | -1567 | — |
| At least 22 | 93% | -1329 | — |
| At least 25 | 97% | -3233 | — |
| At least 28 | 87% | -669 | — |
| At least 31 | 87% | -669 | — |
| At least 35 | 89% | -809 | — |
| At least 40 | 96% | -2400 | — |
| At least 46 | 97% | -3233 | — |
| At least 52 | 0% | — | — |
| At least 58 | 94% | -1567 | — |
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Resolution rules
If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
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Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
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Kalshi lists Mar 15, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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