How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26 Odds
Polymarket traders give 190-209 a 99% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 190-209 | 99% | -9900 | ▲ 52 |
| 170-189 | <1% | +16567 | ▼ 47 |
| 210-229 | <1% | +22122 | ▼ 21 |
| <170 | <1% | +24900 | ▼ 8 |
| 230+ | <1% | +199900 | ▼ 3 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 190-209 at 99%, about -9900 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 2, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.