How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 50 | 6% | +1718 | — | 7% |
| Above 55 | 11% | +809 | — | 6% |
| Above 58 | 11% | +809 | ▼ 2 | 7% |
| Above 60 | 9% | +1076 | ▼ 1 | 8% |
| Above 62 | 10% | +942 | ▼ 4 | 8% |
| Above 64 | 18% | +462 | ▲ 1 | 7% |
| Above 66 | 7% | +1261 | — | 6% |
| Above 68 | 12% | +710 | ▲ 6 | 3% |
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Price history
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The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of Senators voting "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027 is above the number specified in this market's title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Above" means strictly greater than the number specified in the title. For example, a market titled "Above 58" will resolve to "Yes" only if 59 or more Senators vote "Yea". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote must be a vote on final passage of the bill conducted in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. Not every Senator needs to have participated in the vote. The first vote on final passage will be used for resolution regardless of whether the bill passes on that vote; subsequent votes on passage — including any re-vote following a motion to reconsider, or a vote on a conference report or House-amended version — will not be considered. If no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". If qualifying legislation passes the Senate before January 1, 2027 without a prior recorded vote on final passage (e.g., passage by voice vote or unanimous consent), this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of the number specified in this market's title. Once the result of the vote has been announced, any subsequent request by a Senator to add, remove, or change a vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally. This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 2, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.