How many people will Trump deport in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 400-500k a 55% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 400-500k | 55% | -122 | ▼ 3 |
| 300-400k | 9% | +1076 | — |
| 500-600k | 6% | +1450 | — |
| 200-300k | 5% | +1920 | — |
| 900k-1m | 3% | +3290 | — |
| >1m | 3% | +3536 | — |
| 600-700k | 2% | +5163 | — |
| <200k | 2% | +5782 | — |
| 800-900k | 2% | +5961 | — |
| 700-800k | 1% | +7043 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 400-500k at 55%, about -122 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Mar 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.