How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms Odds · of the 435 seats up in the 2026 U.S. House elections, based on media calls
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 158 | 99% | -9900 | — |
| At least 162 | 99% | -9900 | — |
| At least 166 | 99% | -6567 | — |
| At least 170 | 96% | -2400 | — |
| At least 174 | 89% | -809 | ▼ 8 |
| At least 178 | 2% | +6567 | — |
| At least 182 | 2% | +6567 | — |
| At least 186 | 2% | +6567 | — |
| At least 190 | 2% | +6567 | ▲ 1 |
| At least 194 | <1% | +19900 | — |
| At least 198 | <1% | +19900 | — |
| At least 202 | <1% | +19900 | — |
| At least 206 | <1% | +19900 | — |
| At least 210 | <1% | +19900 | — |
| At least 214 | <1% | +19900 | — |
| At least 218 | <1% | +19900 | — |
| At least 222 | <1% | +19900 | — |
| At least 226 | <1% | +19900 | — |
| At least 230 | <1% | +19900 | — |
| At least 234 | <1% | +19900 | — |
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Resolution rules
If the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 158 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Feb 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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