How many House seats will Democrats hold after the 2028 election Odds · When the new House convenes in Jan 2029
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 185 | 96% | -2122 | — |
| At least 190 | 96% | -2122 | — |
| At least 195 | 96% | -2122 | — |
| At least 200 | 96% | -2122 | — |
| At least 205 | 96% | -2122 | — |
| At least 210 | 96% | -2122 | — |
| At least 215 | 93% | -1233 | — |
| At least 218 | 89% | -770 | — |
| At least 220 | 89% | -770 | — |
| At least 225 | 87% | -641 | — |
| At least 230 | 84% | -506 | — |
| At least 235 | 78% | -344 | — |
| At least 240 | 59% | -141 | ▼ 1 |
| At least 245 | 54% | -115 | — |
| At least 250 | 37% | +174 | ▲ 1 |
| At least 255 | 23% | +344 | ▲ 11 |
| At least 260 | 16% | +545 | — |
| At least 265 | 11% | +852 | ▲ 1 |
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Resolution rules
If the Democratic Party holds at least 185 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives at the end of the day the new Congress first convenes after the November 7, 2028, general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Feb 1, 2029 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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